China EV Exports Surge 38% in 2025 Despite Trade Barriers

Exports Accelerate Despite Tariff Headwinds

Chinese automakers exported 2.4 million battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2025, a 38% increase from 1.74 million in 2024, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released on January 10. The growth came despite the European Union's imposition of additional tariffs of 17% to 45% on Chinese EVs in October 2024 and the continuation of U.S. tariffs that effectively block Chinese vehicles from the American market.

BYD Co. led all exporters with 420,000 units, followed by Chery Automobile (380,000), SAIC Motor (340,000), and Geely Automobile (280,000). Tesla's Shanghai factory, which serves as an export hub for Asia-Pacific markets, shipped an additional 310,000 vehicles.

Southeast Asia Emerges as Key Market

Southeast Asia overtook Europe as the largest regional destination for Chinese EVs, absorbing an estimated 620,000 units, a 67% increase from 2024. Thailand was the single largest market at 210,000 vehicles, followed by Indonesia (150,000), the Philippines (95,000), and Vietnam (85,000).

BYD began production at its Rayong, Thailand factory in July, with an initial annual capacity of 150,000 units. Chery, Great Wall Motor, and SAIC's MG brand also operate or are constructing assembly plants in Thailand and Indonesia, hedging against potential tariff barriers.

Latin America and Middle East Growth

Latin America received 340,000 Chinese EVs and hybrids, up 52% year-over-year, with Brazil (180,000), Mexico (65,000), and Chile (45,000) leading the region. BYD's factory under construction in Bahia, Brazil, is expected to begin production in mid-2026 with annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles.

The Middle East absorbed 220,000 units, a 48% increase, driven by demand in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Chinese brands now hold approximately 35% of the Israeli new-car market, up from 8% in 2022.

Europe Volumes Decline

European exports fell 12% to 380,000 units as the additional EU tariffs took effect. MG Motor, owned by SAIC, saw its European sales decline 18%, while BYD's European volumes grew modestly by 6%, reflecting its higher-end positioning and planned local production in Hungary.

"The EU tariffs are redirecting Chinese EV flows rather than reducing them," said Bill Russo, founder of Automobility Ltd. in Shanghai. "The global South is absorbing the displaced volume, and Chinese brands are building manufacturing capacity to eventually supply Europe from within."

Domestic Market Context

China's total domestic EV sales reached 12.6 million units in 2025, with new energy vehicles accounting for 48% of all passenger car sales, up from 38% in 2024. The domestic market's rapid electrification has created production overcapacity that drives the export imperative.

China now has total annual EV production capacity of approximately 20 million units against domestic demand of roughly 13 million, creating a structural surplus that manufacturers must export to maintain utilization rates.

Trade Policy Outlook

The EU is scheduled to review its provisional tariffs in October 2026, with potential for adjustments based on the outcome of negotiations with Beijing over local content commitments and technology transfer. Indonesia and India have both announced plans for graduated tariff increases on fully imported EVs starting in 2027, creating further urgency for Chinese automakers to localize production.